Head for the Hills! Creatures Flee Global Warming
Category: News and Politics

Head for the Hills! Creatures Flee Global Warming

By LiveScience Staff

posted: 12 June 2008 07:15 a.m. ET

Global warming is forcing 30 species of reptiles and amphibians to move uphill as habitats shift upward, but they may soon run out of room to run.

The shift could cause at least two toad species and one species of gecko in Madagascar to go extinct by the end of this century, a biologist says.

Uphill movement is a predicted response to increased temperatures, researcher Christopher Raxworthy of the American Museum of Natural History says. Earlier studies in Costa Rica have provided evidence of how tropical animals respond to climate change.

The new research — based on surveys of Madagascar's amphibians and reptiles conducted in 1993 and 2003 and announced this week — extends that work, expanding the number and diversity of species that the trend affects, making a stronger link with meteorological changes, dealing with relatively large shifts in elevation, and assessing the extinction vulnerability for tropical communities in the mountains.

Nowhere to run

The animals that could go extinct are two species of narrow-mouth toads (Plethodontohyla tsarartananensis and Plethodontohyla sp. Z) and one species of gecko (Phelsuma l. punctulata) found in Madagascar's mountainous north, Raxworthy said.

Two of these species were not found again during the most recent 2003 survey. (And for the 30 species that were re-sampled between 1993 and 2003, the majority are already moving upslope to compensate for habitat loss at lower and warmer altitudes.) Extinction is expected to occur between 2050 and 2100 if current trends persist, because there will eventually be no higher ground, predict Raxworthy and his colleagues from the Université d'Antananarivo in Madagascar, National Chung-Hsing University in Taiwan, University of Michigan and University of Oxford.

The prediction is based on a conservative scenario in which warming remains below 2 degrees C (3 degrees F). Warming above 2 degrees C is considered to be dangerous in terms of impacts on biodiversity.

"Obviously, more warming will put more species at risk," Raxworthy told LiveScience.

The results are detailed in a recent online issue of the journal Global Change Biology.

"Two things together — highly localized distribution close to the very highest summits, and the magnitude of these upslope shifts in response to ongoing warming — make a poisonous cocktail for extinction," Raxworthy said.

Almost-by-chance discovery

Raxworthy discovered the uphill migration almost by chance while in the field. On repeated surveys of northern Madagascar's mountains, the Tsaratanana Massif, he noticed that some species were missing from camps where they'd been previously observed.

Moreover, some of these "missing" species popped up at the next higher elevation surveyed.

"I noted this in the field as strange, but when I later sat down and looked at the data, the trend persisted," Raxworthy said. He culled elevation records and was able to compare surveys of animals over a 10-year period.

The results were dramatic. Among 30 species of geckos, skinks, chameleons and frogs, an average shift uphill of 62 to 167 feet (19 to 51 meters) was observed over the decade. When these results were compared with meteorological records and climate change simulations, the movement of animals could be linked to temperature increases of 0.18°F to 0.67°F (0.1°C to 0.37°C) over the same decade, which corresponds to an expected upslope movement of 59 to 243 feet (17 to 74 meters).

The results are strong because of the diversity of species included in the analyses, Raxworthy said.

The surveyed animals come from five different families of amphibians and reptiles — narrow-mouthed toads, mantelline frogs, chameleons, geckos and skinks (a large, diverse group of lizards).

"When you see a general trend across all these groups of organisms, it is likely to be related to a broad explanation like general temperature warming, not something more subtle such as seasonal variation," Raxworthy said.

Planning ahead

The direct link between observed movement up mountains, possible extinction and climate change has consequences for Madagascar's network of national parks.

The government of Madagascar currently plans to set aside 10 percent of its landmass for conservation purposes, and earlier research this year by Raxworthy and colleagues used the distribution of 2,300 species of animals to map the areas of this island nation that provide adequate habitat for all species.

"The Malagasy government is creating important new reserves and protecting forests. Sadly, however, with a phenomenon like global warming, species will move upslope, and so eventually may still lose all their habitat and go extinct," Raxworthy said. "This conservation problem thus requires a global solution."

The research was supported by the National Science Foundation.

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African landmarks at threat from global warming: UN
Category: News and Politics

African landmarks at threat from global warming: UN

Some of Africa's most famous landscapes such as snow-capped Mount Kilimanjaro and Lake Chad, are at risk of vanishing forever as a result of global warming, a new UN report warned Tuesday.

Unveiling the new atlas of the continent, which maps out its rapidly changing nature, the head of the United Nations' environment programme (UNEP) said it was vital that the international community delivers a new climate agreement before a global convention in Copenhagen next year.

"We need a solution that not only delivers deep emission reductions but also accelerates the flow of funds for adaptation and the climate proofing of economies, and addresses poverty and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals," UNEP executive director Achin Steiner told reporters.

The atlas featured a series of images of more than 100 landmarks taken over the course of the last 35 years.

Some of the startling revelations by the report include satellite images of Mount Kilimanjaro's glaciers which have been disappearing since the beginning of the 20th century.

The survey warned that Kilimanjaro, the highest mountain in Africa, could be snow-free by 2020. It also revealed how glaciers on Uganda's Rwenzori mountains had decreased by 50 percent between 1987 and 2003.

Lake Chad and Lake Victoria, two of the continent's most important water sources, were both shown to be drying up.

Cape Town's unique fynbos vegetation had also been dramatically reduced by urban development over the last three decades while the expansion of capital cities such as Dakar from relative backwaters had had a major environmental impact.

"Loss of forest is a major concern in 35 countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Nigeria and Rwanda, among others," said the survey which was released in Johannesburg.

Africa is losing more than four million hectares (a little under 15,500 square miles) of forest every year -- twice the world's average deforestation rate, says the Atlas. Meanwhile, some areas across the continent are said to be losing over 50 tonnes of soil per hectare per year, it added.

The survey said that erosion and chemical and physical damage have degraded about 65 percent of the continent's farmlands.

"In addition, slash and burn agriculture, coupled with the high occurrence of lightning across Africa, is thought to be responsible for wild fires," it added.

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Animated Map Brings Global Climate Crisis To Life
Category: News and Politics

Animated map brings global climate crisis to life

A new animated map of the earth from space illustrates the potential impact of climate change over the next century and can be viewed on your computer.

The project, Climate Change in Our World, is the result of cooperation between web search engine Google, Britain's environment ministry and the country's Met Office.

Based on Google Earth which uses NASA satellite images, viewers can run a time lapse series to watch the earth warm under medium case scenarios up to 2100 either from a planetary perspective or zeroing in on countries and even cities.

"This project shows people the reality of climate change using estimates of both the change in the average temperature where they live, and the impact it will have on people's lives all over the world," said environment secretary Hilary Benn.

"By helping people to understand what climate change means for them and for the world we can mobilize the commitment we need to avoid the worst effects by taking action now."

Leaders of the major world economies tentatively agreed last year that carbon emissions should be cut by half by 2050 from 1990 levels. But there is now a stand-off between rich and poor nations over who should make the first move.

The Google map shows the world heating as the years advance, with some of the greatest temperature increases at the ice-bound poles where vast areas turn red indicating rises well into double digits.

The map also offers specific information on local impacts and actions people can and in some cases already are taking.

Scientists say global average temperatures will rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 degrees Celsius this century due to carbon emissions from burning fossil fuels for power and transport, causing floods and famines and threatening millions of lives.

But within this global average there will be vast local and regional variations.

"Climate change is arguably one of the biggest issues facing the world today," said Met Office chief John Hirst.

"Merging the Met Office's unparalleled climate science expertise with the exciting technology of Google Earth is a great way of bringing the impacts of a warming world to life."

See the new animated map at http://snipurl.com/29lkd

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Wildlife numbers plummet globally: WWF
Category: News and Politics

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The world's wildlife populations have reduced by around a quarter since the 1970s, according to a major report published Friday by the WWF conservation organization.

Marine species have been particularly hard hit as the human population booms, while numbers of birds and, fish and animals have also gone down, said the WWF in a report.

The study comes ahead of next week's UN convention on biological diversity in the former West German capital Bonn, which will discuss aims to achieve a "significant reduction" in the current rate of biodiversity loss by 2010.

The WWF, the world's largest independent conservation body, said it was "very unlikely" that the UN would meet its targets, despite the decline appearing to flatten off in recent years.

The WWF's Living Planet Index, which tracks the fortunes of nearly 4,000 populations of 1,477 vertebrate species from 1970 to 2005, showed an overall decline of 27 percent.

Over-fishing and hunting, along with farming, pollution and urban expansion, were blamed.

WWF director general James Leape warned: "Reduced biodiversity means millions of people face a future where food supplies are more vulnerable to pests and disease and where water is in irregular or short supply.

"No one can escape the impact of biodiversity loss because reduced global diversity translates quite clearly into fewer new medicines, greater vulnerability to natural disasters and greater effects from global warming."

The marine LPI showed a 28-percent decline with a dramatic drop between 1995 and 2005. The overall freshwater LPI fell by 29 percent between 1970 and 2003.

Swordfish numbers plummeted by 28 percent in the decade from 1995, while ocean birds suffered a 30 percent decline since the mid 1990s.

"Biodiversity underpins the health of the planet and has a direct impact on all our lives so it is alarming that despite an increased awareness of environmental issues we continue to see a downward trend," said Colin Butfield, head of campaigns at WWF-UK.

The British-based conservation charity also warned that a failure to halt biodiversity loss would have negative impacts for humans.

In the next 30 years, climate change is expected to become a significant threat to species, said the WWF.

The declines come at a time when humans are consuming ever more natural resources, and are now using 25 percent more than the planet can replace, it said.

The WWF urged governments to take urgent action to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010, calling for cross-ministry protection plans.

They should also set up financial incentives to support the establishment and maintenance of protection zones, it said.

"The fact that human activities have caused more rapid changes in biodiversity in the last 50 years than at any other time in human history should concern us all," said Britain's Biodiversity Minister Joan Ruddock.

"Supporting wildlife is critical to all our futures and the UK will continue to give strong support to international action.

"The rate of wildlife loss needs to be slowed both in the UK and internationally.

"International action is needed to tackle the worldwide decline in wildlife, with all countries working together."

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Put The Trees In The Ground: A Fix For The Global Carbon Dioxide Problem?
Category: News and Politics

Put The Trees In The Ground: A Fix For The Global Carbon Dioxide Problem?

"Whereas other environmental problems can, at least in principle, be solved by the appropriate modern technology," reports Scholz, "there are no realistic solutions for the CO₂ problem." At present, a daunting 32 gigatons of CO₂ are released into the atmosphere every year. Previous proposals to pump the CO₂ into the oceans are not practicable or are ecologically problematic.

The only possible way to bind sufficiently large quantities of CO₂ from the atmosphere is photosynthesis. However, the resulting biomass cannot be burned or composted, because this would release the bound CO₂. The trick will be to make the biomass "disappear". Scholz recommends planting forests whose wood will subsequently be buried. Possible burial sites include open brown coal pits or other surface mines. These should be filled with wood and covered with soil. Cut off from the air in this manner, the wood would not change, even over long periods. It could in principle be dug up in the future and used.

According to estimations made by Scholz and Hasse, we would have to plant a little over one billion (109) hectares of forest in order to bind all of the carbon dioxide produced in a year. This corresponds roughly to the surface of the virgin forest cut down in the last century. This project could be financed by an additional tax of 0.11 € per liter of gasoline or 0.003 € per kilowatt-hour of electricity.

"The forests should be planted in countries that are suitable for growing forest and also have the necessary sites for burial of the wood," stresses Scholz. "Other countries, the primary consumers of fossil fuels, can pay them for it. This would produce a global trade that would benefit everyone involved."

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New study amplifies warning on climate change
Category: News and Politics

A wide-scale study published Wednesday has strengthened warnings, spelt out last year by UN scientists, that climate change is already on the march.

The paper, published in Nature, goes beyond the scope taken by a landmark report issued by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in February 2007.

In that document, the IPCC said man-made global warming was "likely" -- within a probability of 66-90 percent -- to have had a "discernible" effect on many physical and biological systems.

The new study, published in the British journal Nature, is written by many of the people who wrote the so-called Working Group I report, the first of a trio of major assessments released last year by the IPCC.

Its approach widens the net of data for making a fresh analysis.

It concludes "significant changes" are already occurring among natural systems on all continents, with the exception of Antarctica, and in most oceans.

"Humans are influencing climate through increasing greenhouse gas emissions," said lead author Cynthia Rosenzweig of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Columbia Center for Climate Systems Research.

"The warming world is causing impacts on physical and biological systems attributable at the global scale."

The analysis is based on a trawl of hundreds of papers published in peer-reviewed journals, .. stretching back to 1970s.

These investigations covered phenomena as varied as the earlier leafing of trees and plants; the movement of species to higher latitudes and altitudes in the northern hemisphere in response to warmer weather; the shrinkage of glaciers and melting of permafrost; and changes of bird migrations in Europe, North America and Australia.

Critics of the IPCC report have variously argued that the perceptible warming that has occurred over the last three decades is due to natural causes, such as volcanic eruptions or changes in solar radiation, or to the effect of deforestation and other changes in land use.

The new paper rejects this, saying the changes in Earth's natural systems cannot be explained by such factors, and only man-made warming could be the culprit.

The Working Group I report forecast likely warming of 1.8-4.0 degrees Celsius (3.2-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100 and a rise in sea levels of at least 18 centimetres (7.2 inches). Hunger, homelessness and water-borne disease are among the many risks that would be amplified as a result of climate change.

In a commentary, also published by Nature, climatologists Francis Zwiers and Gabriele Hegerl picked over the big dispute as to whether climate impacts could be pinned on human interference.

They placed a question mark over the shortness of the records put forward by Rosenzweig's team. Evidence stretching back far longer than a few decades was needed to get a solid perspective, they said.

But, they added, these objections are outweighed by "the sheer number of changes" that the paper lists.

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NASA Study Links Earth Impacts to Human-Caused Climate Change
Category: News and Politics

NASA Study Links Earth Impacts to Human-Caused Climate Change

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Peruvian ’Switzerland’ melting under climate change
Category: News and Politics

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Peru's Cordillera Blanca, a snow-topped northern mountain range sometimes called the "Peruvian Switzerland," is slowly disappearing because of climate change, a key issue on the table of a Latin America-EU summit being held in Lima this week.

The glaciers making up the range -- declared a natural world heritage site by UNESCO -- have steadily been shrinking, said Marco Zapata, the head of the glaciology unit of Peru's National Institute for Natural Resources.

He explained that between 1948 and 1976, the Cordillera Blanca has diminished by nine meters, and between 1977 and now by around 20 meters.

The time left for tourists to see the spectacular zone is limited, and depends on temperature variations, he said.

Zapata added: "It is known that the shrinking process of the glaciers is irreversible and nothing can be done."

A 1989 evaluation found that Peru had more than 3,000 glaciers in an area of 2,041 square kilometers. Just eight years later, the area had been cut by a quarter, to 1,595 square kilometers.

A clear example of what is happening can be seen on the Pastoruri mountain, a 5,240-meter-high peak that each year attracts 60,000 tourists. "It is turning into an ice-capped mountain, because the snow is rapidly shrinking," Zapata said.

In 1995, the perimeter at the snowline was 1.8 square kilometers. By last year, that had eroded to just 1.1 square kilometers.

Huascaran National Park, where the Cordillera Blanca is situated, contains 663 glaciers including the 6,768-meter-high Huascaran summit itself, along with 296 lakes and 41 rivers.

But Jean Ortiz, who heads the running of the park, said global warming was seriously changing the face of the reserve, where many high-altitude plants and animals were becoming rarer or had disappeared entirely.

"It's unusual to see with your own eyes deer, mountain cats, Andean cats, vicunas (a llama-like animal), Andean condors, partridges," he said.

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Obama open to Clinton as possible running mate
Category: News and Politics

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Democrat Barack Obama on Thursday did not rule out selecting rival Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate if he ultimately defeats her in a race in which he has an almost insurmountable lead.

"There's no doubt that she's qualified to be vice president, there's no doubt she's qualified to be president," Obama told NBC News.

In a CNN interview, he said he had not wrapped up the Democratic presidential nomination, but when he does, he will start going through the process of selecting a running mate.

"She is tireless, she is smart. She is capable. And so obviously she'd be on anybody's short list to be a potential vice presidential candidate," said Obama, who inched closer to winning the nomination by routing Clinton in North Carolina and almost defeating her in Indiana on Tuesday.

Some Democrats are saying Obama and Clinton would be a formidable team against Republican John McCain in the race to the November election.

According to a CBS News/New York Times poll released last week, a majority of both Obama and Clinton voters say they would favor a so-called "Dream Ticket" involving both candidates.

The Clinton campaign has deflected such talk. Clinton campaign spokesman Howard Wolfson told reporters on Wednesday that it was premature to discuss such a ticket and he had not heard her express any interest in the vice presidency.

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Brazil Launches Sustainable Development Plan For Amazon
Category: News and Politics

Brazil launches sustainable development plan for Amazon

Brazil on Thursday launched an ambitious sustainable development plan for the Amazon that aims to lay down a new model for the vast jungle area balancing economic and environmental priorities, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said.

"We all understand that the Amazon needs to develop, but we also understand that there had to be a development model that is well thought-out, and not predatory, just like we have in other regions of the country," he said.

The initiative aims at laying down infrastructure works in nine Brazilian states that are within the Amazon, opening credit lines to small farmers, and adopting new criteria for the registration of people in the area.

It provides for various methods to fight deforestation and the illegal occupation of public land.

"There are people who think the Amazon should belong to mankind. And we think that way, too. We think that it needs to benefit everyone. But we also have to say loudly and clearly that it is Brazil that is in charge of looking after the Amazon," Lula said.

That was seen as a shot across the bow of foreign governments and groups that want to pressure Brazil in terms of limitations on Amazon development.

"Each time someone talks about the Amazon abroad, usually it provokes a defense, responses to questions about deforestation, burning of land, pollution and other things that we raise. We often have a lot of problems with that," he said.

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