GUSTAV PM UPDATE 7

GUSTAV PM UPDATE 31AUG08

Well, Gustav finally started coming together this evening. He's starting to spin like he should and getting a solidly visible core again (it was obscured by clouds all day). Flight level winds from recon showed 115kts and mid 900s pressure. Not bad considering the time he was having today.

Enter that dry air. You can see it starting to get drawn in really well now. Tropical storms don't like dry air. The effect I believe we will see in this case is that it will tighten up the core. That will reduce the diameter of the area of highest winds. That's good news.

The narrower that wind field is, the smaller the raw surge from the water column it will build under the eye and the less the wind speeds will be the further out you get from it.

Now, that's a limited supply of dry air. He blows through it and gets clear while still over warm water and you can have expansion of the core and an further increase in the wind speed.

He's moving fast, though, so he'd better get the dry air thing over with quick.

Factor two; as he gets nearer to shore, the outer bands are going to start spinning their individual storm cells off. You'll really see that happening tomorrow morning. Those storms are serious in and of themselves. Items to watch for include tornadoes galore, blown transformers and downed power lines inland. They can energize standing water.

When Emg Servcs say stay inside, they do so for a reason. I know a fireman who drove through energized water after Wilma a couple years ago and it wasn't pretty. That, falling trees and flooding from rain are the two big dangers inland.

Best case scenario at this point is for Gustav to suck up tons of dry air and condense down into a smaller core.

For my chaser buds who are in Houma, LA, tomorrow will be an exciting day.

1:11 AM - 0 Comments - 0 Kudos - Add Comment

GUSTAV UPDATE 6

Mid-Morning Gustav Update

The dry air trend I noticed last night has continued this am. There has also been a tad more drift towards the north and that has the potential to run Gustav over and past the hottest part of the Gulf Loop current. Less fuel.

A good example of how these storms thrive on really hot water was to be seen yesterday when he started coming in under Cuba past the island of Eternal Socialist International Brotherly Youth (or whatever it's called). Just under the hook of W. Cuba was a pool of napalm water. Result; rapid and picture perfect intensification.

This am, however, we see that between dry air getting in there and the slide over water just a tad cooler and the storm doesn't look so good.

Throw in some wind shear for good measure. Now mind you it's getting it's eye back and there's a really decent burst of convection on the SW side which will get wrapped in so we're not by any means out of the woods yet. I'd venture that in a few hours or less we're gonna see another nice, clear eye form out there.

The big "IF" now is whether Gustav will get back over the hotter pockets of the loop current and the shear will abate. I personally don't see this dry air trend backing off, it's positioned to continue being sucked in backdoor to the SW the whole way in unless another atmospheric aspect comes in and squeezes it out.That spells contraction of the core.

Again, this is weather, things change, sometimes hourly. Also, even with a contracted core, if he is still spun up into the CAT 2-4 range by landfall, you can bet there's going to be a column of water up under the eye that's going to get disgorged as surge, with decent wave action on top of that.

Thus, prudence dictates that those in flood prone coastal areas, such as southern Louisiana/NOLA and points east, understand that while it may remain or become a smaller storm, it can still get you no problem.

Forget wind speed, it's the water that will do you in. This includes East TX depending on how that ridge of high pressure holds up.

(Basics of this were posted earlier at UKWW at 11:06.)

4:04 AM - 0 Comments - 0 Kudos - Add Comment

Gustav Update 4 (or 5)

GUSTAV UPDATE 4 or 5 (too many delivery mediums, I'm starting to mix them up)

A couple of factors to look at this evening.

First, lets look at the atmosphere around the storm. It ramped up really hard in the hook below Cuba and is just emerging off the north side. It's maintaining good form despite what it's getting ready to get mixed up with; Dry Air.

Just like hot water, these storms need nice, hot, wet air in order to expand and continue to convect. If they start sucking in dry air, the convection cycle gets disrupted. Smaller storms, regardless of intensity, are vulnerable to this. More than one I have been on has ingested a huge gulp just before landfall and screwed itself up pretty good.

This could be good news for NOLA and bad news for chasers in this case. If that air really starts interacting with the storm, it would likely contract the core of serious winds at it's center. That makes for a smaller wind field of high speed, damaging winds...a storm's "Driver."

If you watch the Gulf of Mexico water vapor loop at NHC's satellite page you can see some of the outflow to the NW starting to twitch as it makes contact.

So, that's a factor we will keep an eye on.

The second is relative size and speed. Now, Gustav is about to get into nice, warm, wide open water in the southern gulf. That gives him room to expand (if that dry air doesn't get into the mix too heavy). Bigger core of high energy wind, bigger swath of damage and more surge.

Less time over fuel, however, less time to expand.

I would like to show you what Katrina looked like on her run in. She was mega huge. Hurricane force winds extended out 70 miles from the center or more. That's huge. The reason she got so big was that the atmospherics were wide open for development and she took her sweet time on the approach. Not so Gustav, who's looking like he'll burn up some distance at a good clip.

Just want to point that out. Two different animals...totally.

If Gustav contracts or keeps a tight core, that's going limit the sphere and scope of his "driver."

Now, does that mean that if you live in St. Bernard or a block from Industrial Canal in NOLA that you can now change the channel to espn?

HELL NO.

This thing even gets close and that NE quadrant "Driver" is still going to be pushing a lot of water (and Katrina pretty much wiped out the delta that used to soak up surge of this kind). That water gets up the river and into the mouth of the lake at levels that some of the models are running and all it will take is one weak spot and we're looking at '05 all over again.

So, unless you have to be there, might be a really good idea to not be there.

Regards water temps. They're just fine, plenty fine and holding steady. The cool water to the east has dissipated, as I thought it might. The hotter pockets have drifted west, but there's plenty of fuel for this thing yet, so no relief on that front.

Between late tonight and tomorrow and we'll start getting a really good handle on where this thing is going to go and how mean it's gonna be when it gets there.

NHC and the other models are still looking at the western buzz saw effect through the oil fields south of Houma and up across through the Lake Charles area and they're sticking to it. We'll know soon enough.

I'll point out that even a compact 4 up through there is going to cause a whole bunch of havoc on those rigs, so you might want to budget for that.

.

2:40 AM - 0 Comments - 0 Kudos - Add Comment

Gustav Update 2

Skipping one update here, but this is interesting.

First, basic premise with hurricanes is warm water good, cool water bad. They intensify from the warm, they poop out over cool. (even mega monster Katrina had some cool water issues right at landfall on her left side. Not enough to really throw her off, being the freight train that she was, but still, a smaller storm would have had problems...anyway)

See the latest Surface Temp matrix, three day compilation.

 
Note the big lake of cool water from NOLA east past Panama City. A storm gets over that on it's run to landfall and it tends to weaken, sometimes really badly as warm water is necessary for the powerful convection that these storms are made of. Cool interferes with that process. I've been chumped more than once by cool pockets of water just offshore.
 
So, say we stick with NHC's track, which has been pretty consistent these last three or four runs (and they're good at what they do, by the way). That would seem to put Gustav over average warm water into the middle of nowhere west of NOLA. Intensity forecast reflects this; a CAT 3 over the hot stuff in circle 1, then down to a CAT 2 in circle 3.

If it drifts and runs further west over circle 2, we got hot again. That would mean a sustainment of intensity and puts Houston into the crosshairs.

But lets say it does a fat Gulf re-curve and comes in east of NOLA. Well, now the lead elements are hitting all that cold water as it makes landfall. Not good for a storm if that water is cool enough. Even if it comes right onto NOLA, it's north east quadrant is sucking up cold water as it spins counter-clockwise. Again, not good for the storm, going to cool that hot convective process and weaken it, perhaps badly. 

(This is especially important as that NE quad is the one that would wrap around and drive intense wind down the lake from the north and NW. That drives water down towards any surge coming up the mouth of the river and you have a big pile up, which is what doomed the canals during Katrina).

If it's a compact storm by the time it gets to landfall, that kind of interference can be really damaging, just like it was when we chased Dennis. Nice, hot little CAT 3 storm, until it hit the cool pocket south of Pensacola and then it's core contracted really badly. We missed the eye wall because of that.

So, it's track over these various pockets of different water temps bear watching. (mind you, these temps change too, so we watch them closely as well.)

We'll have a much better idea of where this storm is going to go exactly and how hot it's gonna ramp up after it clears Cuba. As that happens, we all keep an eye on it.

2:20 PM - 4 Comments - 2 Kudos - Add Comment

Heads Up; Hurricane Gustav
Current mood: anxious

Hi All,

Here is my map from yesterday (26AUG2008). Note the very hot water of the Gulf Loop Current. He gets his teeth into that and we're looking at a power up on the intensity track.

Here is NHC's map from this am (27AUG08). (we now enter the phase where these track models will start jumping back and fourth several degrees per run. The models are, however, narrowing down uncommonly fast, they usually jump all over the place until 72 to 48hrs out) Yesterday they had it tracking west of NOLA.



Here is today's NWS/NOAA intensity projection for Monday, Sept 1st. Note location of Lake Ponche.




You will note that this intensity model brings this storm into the CAT 4-5 range. That jibes with my experience with these creatures as water hounds and the water temps I'm seeing down there.

I pray to god that all of us are wrong, very, very wrong.

All the models are starting to jibe, however.

The reason this is perhaps as bad as it gets is two fold.

A. NOLA and the Gulf Coast cannot handle a storm like this.
B. A storm of this intensity will damage the power grid in ways we haven't seen for a very long time. Catastrophic is the word that comes to mind.

What that means is that surface winds (and the hundreds of tornadoes this thing will throw down) are of such intensity that it will shred above ground power distribution systems. Katrina was bad enough at a solid CAT 1. This is far worse.

In the event that that happens, it will have national implications, namely the power supplies for pipeline Pumping Stations to the east for fuel. As I said in my dispatch yesterday, we came real close here on the mid-Atlantic to major fuel shortages after Katrina because of that. IF this occurs as these models are suggesting, and no one has made provisions for these pumping stations to have their own on-site power supplies, than we are in real trouble.

Bottom line; IF these models pan out, the grid down there is going to suffer damage akin to a wartime incident. It will take months to fix it. You may remember that Katrina knocked out power as far away as Canada and it took weeks to restore power to areas along the Gulf Coast.

This could prove to be an entirely different animal.

ALCON (and that means everyone east of the MS, especially); pay VERY close attention to this storm. Just because it hits the Gulf Coast does not mean that it's effects will not be felt in VA, MD, DC,GA, etc. TN and points north need to be heads up as well.

PRAY for wind sheer and steering currents that carry this thing either into the mountains behind Cancun or east of the loop current, preferrably with a re-curve into a thin zone on the FL panhandle.

9:07 PM - 3 Comments - 4 Kudos - Add Comment

Open Letter to Congress: VA Tech Shootings

The Congress of the United States and State Legislative bodies across the nation

Open Letter Regarding the VA Tech shooting incident

Dear Legislators,

I am writing today to express my sorrow and my outrage at the incident that happened at VA Tech this week and to lend some of my insights into matters of this nature. I have been a soldier and a war correspondent for twenty years. My experience with human violence is extensive. I have spent hundreds of hours with law enforcement and military assets world wide. I am trained in many of their techniques myself. As the review of this matter gets underway, I would like to point out several issues that must bear close scrutiny.

This will be an emotionally charged process. There will be calls to "Do Something." I have found that this is a nebulous way to approach things and rarely accomplishes anything in the way of concrete measures that will have any effect. I urge you to do everything in your power to help diffuse any injection of emotion into this process and to take note of the factors I have outlined below.

Physical Security Apparatus

The first of two issues that immediately came to my attention concern physical security apparatus. Apparently the classroom doors couldn't be locked from inside. We have one example of students having to barricade the door with tables and the other of the heroic actions of Prof. Librescu (which I find his fate particularly heartbreaking) who tried to hold the door closed himself.

Why couldn't these doors be locked with the push of a button on the door knob or the turn of a deadbolt tumbler?

When the first sign of trouble occurs, teachers or students lock the door, thus creating a safe haven. The shooter is now confined to hallways. This greatly reduces the victim pool he has to choose from and limits his movement. Such a simple security device costs in the $5.00 range. Immediate steps to install them on every classroom door should be taken.

Campus Police Intervention

As the events unfolded, I saw footage of campus police taking cover outside while the shots of the shooter could still be heard.

Has no one ever briefed this department that with an active shooter scenario the first officer(s) on scene must immediately effect entry, by any means, and put the shooter under duress?

It has been shown time and again that in the case of an active mass shooter that immediate entry and engagement is the only way to save lives. If even one police officer or armed citizen moves to engage the shooter, it turns the entire dynamic on it's head. The shooter is no longer the hunter, he is the hunted and must now contend with active intervention against himself rather than continue to target victims.

The recent mall shootings in Utah underscore this. An off duty police officer, having dinner in the capacity of a private citizen and armed, immediately engaged the shooters attention. This bought precious time for other law enforcement assets to "pile on" and bring the situation to a halt. The same thing happened recently on the streets of Memphis, TN. A deranged individual opened fire but was immediately engaged by two citizens with conceal handgun carry permits. The shooter was incapacitated and arrested before he could do damage to innocents. The list goes on.

In light of these tactical facts it would seem imperative that security forces responsible for the protection of student bodies must be re-trained in the current methods of dealing with mass shooters at whatever expense is necessary. There are any number of security schools across the country that offer this curriculum, many will even come to your location. Funding for such an initiative must be found.

Students and Teachers were Defenseless

Apparently no one had so much as a can of pepper spray on hand to interfere with the attacker. It is my belief, stemming from years of experience with these sorts of issues, that if Prof. Librescu or a student had been able to simply pull a can of pepper spray from his briefcase or book bag and utilized it the shooter would have been at the very least impeded.

Why are educators and trusted students not being brought into the security fold? Is there no program that looks realistically at these kinds of scenarios and gives educators and other staff a few simple options and training to deal with them besides running or cowering helplessly?

One of the first victims was a dorm monitor. This individual heard shots, went to investigate empty handed and became a victim. Another honored professor had no other option than to block a door with no lock with his own body. Unacceptable.

It is no secret that many in the education field loathe any aspect of conflict and many agitate for various controls around the tools of violence, but at the same time they almost uniformly resist any move to bring some of the physical security responsibilities into their court. Sorry, we live in a dangerous world and that's just not going to cut it anymore. They must begin to accept some responsibility for the realities of this world. They cannot be wished or legislated away.

Educators and administrators must be brought into the security fold and they must have more options at their disposal besides flight or hiding. They are the ones who make first contact. They must be brought in, kicking and screaming if necessary. A realistic examination of both non-lethal and lethal options must be engaged in. I do not believe that it is unreasonable for teachers to be held responsible for some aspects of physical security, be trained in those methods and equipped for it. We have educators who helped put men on the moon. That they cannot be made to master a few simple concepts routinely utilized by the average corrections officer is unfathomable.

A shot of pepper spray and a touch from a pocket Taser in the hands of Prof. Libescu or a member of the Corps of Cadets could have ended this. Libescu obviously demonstrated that he had presence of mind to attempt to block access to his room. I don't see why other educators cannot be given the training to take action. It's got to be better than cowering and awaiting your fate.

The mere presence of such a policy will have dramatic powers of deterrence. People who commit these acts are essentially cowards. They seek out the helpless. When it is known that there are sheepdogs about, the flock tends to go unmolested. We must put realistic and doable security policies back into the hands of the sheepdogs. We make many academic demands of educators. It's time to make a few real world, physical ones.

Mental Health Adjudication was not in the NICS Database

The individual responsible for this act had been judged mentally unstable by a Virginia court. He had been committed involuntarily on the 3 day psyche evaluation and was found to be a danger to at least himself.

Why was this not in the NICS database?

It is a tricky privacy issue regarding a citizens medical history. However, I believe that there can be found some way to differentiate between someone who voluntarily seeks or accepts counseling and someone who must be brought involuntarily before a judge. There is a clear distinction: people who either seek or accept counseling or therapy are not turning up in these sorts of scenarios. Their records can be kept private. Someone who gets to the point where outsiders feel the pressing need to bring this person before a judge has brought themselves into the public arena and this should be reflected.

I believe that with a cool and steady hand, our lawmakers can ensure that this distinction is made. The database are digital, it is a question of data entry. If we can't find the money to pay for that, then we have much more pressing issues that will undoubtedly come to a head sooner rather than later and this entire matter will be moot.

We live in a Dangerous World

We live in a world where mass killing simulators are available to youth at an early age. We refuse to do anything about it. We live in a world where gratuitous violence has become a source of mass entertainment. We refuse to do anything about it. We have created schools with mass populations that lend themselves to a vicious pecking order that staff cannot control. Children who are emotionally at risk are perpetually victims of this system and sooner or later one of them will snap. We refuse to do anything about it.

For example, some of our schools host student populations of 3-5 thousand with only a handful of teachers and administrators to manage it. The equivalent size organization in a military setting has a Military Police battalion of 5-6 hundred men present at all times. That is in a social unit of adults who have been through an extensive training regimen. To expect order in schools of equivalent size is ludicrous. Yet we refuse to reorganize our school districts.

Therefore, in light of the avenues that society at large has apparently ruled out, we must insist that our educators accept reality and the means necessary to deal with it. Signs and policies proclaiming "Weapons Free Zones" are not only the product of wishful thinking but also create a ready made pool of victims by those who lose their minds and seek out the helpless. I have observed in my experience that these policies are by and large the product of people who have a hard time dealing emotionally with the realities of physical force. What must be done is to bite back the fears, embrace the way the world is and take steps to mitigate against it.

Without a change in mindset, wishful thinking like signs, gun control or any other measures that dodge the responsibility of those charged with the physical and intellectual well being of our children, are futile. We must press educators to step up and be sheepdogs or we'll be seeing this again. The first step in being a sheepdog requires starting to think like one. We must insist on that. The days of "Feel good" security measures are over. Only realism will prevail.

Conclusion

I therefore urge you to resist to the utmost attempts to cast blame where it doesn't belong, and not to fall prey to the hue and cry to assign collective responsibility upon inanimate objects and further restrict the rights of citizens who are not only blameless, but may also be part of the solution.

I remain, respectfully yours,

Hurricane Jim

11:27 AM - 5 Comments - 8 Kudos - Add Comment

British Army LSD Tests (Hillarious)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysfRmYwvcpw

6:13 AM - 0 Comments - 0 Kudos - Add Comment

Another hillarious gif animation.

9:35 AM - 1 Comments - 1 Kudos - Add Comment

Concealed Carry Move

This is perhaps one of the best concealed carry moves ever rendered in a hollywood movie. They're not kidding here, this is how it's done. Someone trained Tom Cruise for this very well.

This is why you don't get within an arms reach of people.

6:23 AM - 2 Comments - 0 Kudos - Add Comment

The Myspace Manhunt
Category: MySpace

Well, an interesting thing has been rolling on Myspace over the last few days. Seems some very stupid young man down in New Orleans savagely kicked a young Goth(?) girl in the face, causeing extensive damage. It has touched off a massive Myspace manhunt.

You can see the initial background on this at www.myspace.com/celticvisionary (Heather; the victim) and www.myspace.com/minotaure (Will; The perp) Check her Blog threads. Then, cruise over to "Will" the guy who did that to her. Check the furious response across his blog threads.  (For an extensive photo profile of Will, go to www.myspace.com/kristoff and check his threads.)

This whole saga is actually really interesting and if dumbass survives his little mistake it will go down in history as one of the most bizzare and comprehensive grassroots Internet based manhunts in history.

(For god's sake, if anyone of the hundreds of people in here finds this guy before he turns himself in or the cops get him, ROLL TAPE and SHOOT PICTURES. There are enough anonymous, overseas web servers out there to make it a memorable Podcast of public retribution and a chilling testiment of the power of the online community.)

I mean, just look at all of it. There's a guy on Will's "Plz Die" thread that looks like Mr. Wolf from "Pulp Fiction" and he's posted imagery of a deranged black man with promises of a rump-romp during incarceration. Then there's some guy from someplace called "Hostile City" which in and of itself speaks volumes. The combined efforts of "every Hammerskin chapter in the southeast" needs no explanation either.

Then by far the most chilling promise of rough justice comes to us from  "BIG DADDY KANE"

"WOW!!! What a piece of shit you are. Listen, I dont know you all and I do not know Heather at all...never met her. Guess what though? Now I know both of you...Rumor has it that you will be making refudge in my neck of the woods. I know our paths will cross and I know what is going to happen to you. I will tell you this I will have prepared for jail. I will find 5-6 crackheads and promise them their next high will be on me...all they have to do is gang rape you...maybe several times."

Now there's a man who's done some planning.

Further back in the shadows, word has gone out quietly across a whole spectrum of foreign mercenaries and security contractors from Baghdad to Botswanna as well. This guy can't even flee to Liberia without being recognised.

There's hippies, hardcores, hillbillies, hell raisers and probably a few Hindus in on this by now. Truely the spring event that everyone wants in on, and with good reason. Ten years ago, Heather would have filed a police report and unless blind luck or fate struck little Will, that probably would have been the end of it and she would never have had any closure. Today, however, by simply posting this on Myspace, it has made the rounds across a spectrum far beyond her immediate circle of friends and far beyond even the borders of the US. Pretty fuk'n cool.

Truely a cross cultural, international manhunt brought to you by the Myspace community. With this crowd, I give the kid another week, maybe.

(This being the ironic world it is, however, my money is on Myspace "Tom" to get the bust.)

Drivers, start your engines...

HurricaneJim

5:59 PM - 4 Comments - 2 Kudos - Add Comment