This is a sculpture from the Na' Aina Kai Botanical Gardens
A nesting albatross in the Botanical Gardens
A White Orchid
Rainbow Eucalyptus Tree Huggers
Mike caught this tuna, and we had it cooked for dinner
at the Pau Hana Bar & Grill in Kapaa.
A highlight of our trip was meeting artist Yasha Leytush at Anini Beach. He makes beautiful niihau shell jewelry, and Mike bought me earrings. Yasha joined us for dinner and we dropped him off in Wailua River State Park. Yasha is featured in this video clip from "Something About Paradise" a film by The ARTwork Company of Kauai. "This video is intended to benefit those who know and love the Na Pali Coast and the Kalalau Trail. " For more info contact the Kauai Center for Sustainable Living 808.756.8942.
Forecasting with Generational Dynamics
Current mood: okay
Category: Web, HTML, Tech
I am writing today about the method of forecasting that has guided my thinking since I discovered it in 2004. This method is called Generational Dynamics developed by John J. Xenakis on his premierWebsiteand Web Blog, Generational Dynamics.
Generational Dynamics is based on Generation Theory, developed by authors William Strauss and Neil Howe, in their ambitious work, The Fourth Turning (1997). They look at 400 years of Anglo-American history against a template of four twenty-year generational groups, The Artist, Hero, Nomad, and Prophet, in four twenty-year cycles of Eras, the length of a human lifespan. The Eras are Crisis, Austerity, Awakening, and Unraveling. Each generation has characteristics and themes that propel them diagonally through their place in history, along with their generational cohorts. In the chart below, the Artists are the Homelanders, age 8 and younger, the Heroes are the Millennials, ages 9 to 28, the Nomads are Gen X, ages 29 to 46, and the Boomers, ages 47 - 65 are the current Prophets. Oldsters would be on the previous chart, the Artists of the last cycle are the Silent Generation, and the few remaining oldster Heroes are from the Greatest Generation, who fought in WW II.
Xenakis took Generational Theory and created Generational Dynamics as a methodology for forecasting history. His blog looks at news events that depend on generational changes in attitudes and beliefs of large masses of people.
What is Generational Dynamics?
"Generational Dynamics is based on a simple idea: That societies and nations make mistakes and then learn lessons from those mistakes. But generations grow older, retire and die, and are replaced by new generations who are too young to remember those mistakes and those lessons. When that happens, the mistakes are repeated.
This is important today, because one of those mistakes is to have a major war. There are certain wars called "Crisis Wars" that are so violent that they actually put the nation's survival, or at least the nation's way of life, in danger. America's last crisis war was World War II, and the previous one was the Civil War. (World War I was never a crisis war for America.)
Generational Dynamics is very important at this time in America's history because we've entered a new "Crisis period." Ten years ago, all the nation's senior government, business and educational leaders and managers were from the generation that grew up during World War II, and experienced the trauma of seeing homelessness, starvation and death all around them, while they lived in fear of German and Japanese bombers. That risk-aversive generation dealt with problems using compromise and containment.
Today, those risk-aversive leaders are gone, retired or dead. Today's leaders are from the "Baby Boomer generation," born after World War II with no personal memory of that war. The people in this generation are not risk-aversive. The people in this generation are more likely to be risk-seeking, arrogant, hubristic, narcissistic, and self-assured. That's why America's attitudes have changed so much in the last ten years.
Once you understand Generational Dynamics, then you'll understand a very great deal about how the world works, and about America's future for the next thirty years."
The Generational Dynamics Website and Blog
On the Website, Xenakis has an information packed Home Page and Weblog. Also, there are links to his two books. His first, Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America'sDestiny, is available for purchase. His second, Generational Dynamics for Historians, is online for free.
The online book explains the theory in detail, including the Interdisciplinary nature of Generational Dynamics. Chaos Theory and advanced mathematical theories compose the background, along with the influence of Strauss and Howe.
Xenakis explains his motivation:
"Since 2002, we've been using Generational Analysis to make specific, hard predictions about worldwide events, politics, culture, technology, economics and international finance, and with much better accuracy than private analyst firms. If you're paying big money for high-priced newsletters from private analyst firms, and all you're getting is vague "that might be a problem" forecasts, then check this website regularly to get really useful, accurate forecasts -- FOR FREE.
We believe that this site is providing a public service by providing information about America's future which is not available anywhere else, and cannot be learned by any methodology other than Generational Dynamics."
Xenakis updates his weblog frequently, with clear explanations for the general reader.
I highly recommend this site for anyone interested in forecasting.
Todd Rundgren at the Pantages 01-22-2008
Current mood: happy
On Tuesday night I had the pleasure of reconnecting with an old musical friend – Todd Rundgren. As many of you know, I am a longtime fan of Todd's – going back to my Philly roots.
This concert, described by bassist Kasim Sultan was a "plug in and play" show, was part of the short "Freeze Your Ass Off" tour. There was no warm up band, no sets or effects, just four guys pumping out the rock to warm the gray haired crowd of faithful fans.
Todd, clad in sexy black leather pants and black t-shirt, was joined by his longtime bass-player, Kasim Sultan, guitarist Jesse Gress, and former Journey drummer, Prairie Prince to "shred" his rock anthem guitar solos.
This tight set did not indulge us with love ballads or metaphysical questions, instead the songs were collected from the rockers of Todd's 30 plus year oeuvre.
Set List: All songs from Todd Rundgren albums, unless noted
Buffalo Grass
2000 One Long Year
I Hate My Frickin' ISP
2000 One Long Year
Black Maria
1972 Something/Anything?
Soul Brother
Cover
Mammon
2004 Liars
Fascist Christ
1993 No World Order
I Saw The Light
1972 Something/Anything? a top 100 hit
Black and White
1976 Faithful
Lunatic Fringe
Cover
1 Lowest Common Denominator
1974 Todd
Drive
1983 Ever Popular Tortured Artist Effect
Tiny Demons
1981 Healing
Mystified
1985 Utopia, POV
Broke Down and Busted
1970 Runt
Slut
1972 Something /Anything?
The Walls Came Down
Cover original by The Call
One World
1982 Utopia, Swing To The Right
Encore:
Hawking
1989 Nearly Human
Trapped
1977 Oops Wrong Planet
World Wide Epiphany
1993 No World Order
Todd entertained the crowd with short comments, but mostly with his great, tight songs, guitar solos, and a little fancy footwork, that looked pretty good for a guy turning sixty.
Shout outs to old friends Kate and Bill, and of course to Lani, who was selling merchandise. She helped me pick out my new sage green Foamy sweatshirt. Foamy is Todd's guitar.
Todd Rundgren Radio - Web Radio at it's finest. New weekly shows about all things Todd.
Michele Rundgren - This link is to "iTune In, iTune Out," a hilarious one act play, written and directed by Michele Rundgren.
YouTube Metalunatic has posted individual videos of Todd performing most of the songs in the Set List above, at a concert from May 2007. Other You-Tuber's have posted videos from the current tour, as well.
Todd Rundgren interview on Minnesota Public Radio. Todd appeared on "Mid Morning" on the day of the concert. The interview can be heard here.
Baby Boomer Blog :The Thesis
Current mood: happy
Category: Blogging
In February 2004 I wrote the first entry in "Baby Boomer Blog," a blog I created as a vehicle for developing my personal capital in an age of innovation and change. Baby Boomer Blog eventually became my final project for the MLS. It is a creative project and this paper serves as the process paper.
The process paper is divided into six chapters. In the introduction I explain my topic, blogs, and my project, Baby Boomer Blog. I present my thesis statement and define blogs, virtual selves, personal capital, and alternative futures. In chapter two I present the interdisciplinary framework for my project. I explain how the Liberal Studies curriculum, the writings of Arthur Harkins, and the Generational Theory of authors William Strauss and Neil Howe affected my outlook. Some current research from the Pew research foundation's Internet in American Life Project provides context for my project.
In chapter three I describe my personal experience with Baby Boomer Blog. I review the topics of my blog, present my blog statistics and describe the blogging service I use, called Typepad. Chapter four will define Blogging on the Internet Social Network, MySpace. Part of my research has been comparing and contrasting the results of blogging on this Internet Social Network. I expanded my original blog into two blogs, a technique known as cross-posting. Chapter five will explain what I learned from blogging. I analyze the lessons learned from blogging, including the importance of design for a blogger. I include an example of publicity I garnered for my blogging, and a cute web survey, "How Much Is My Blog Worth?"
In the conclusion of my paper, and I share my insights on the future of blogging and Baby Boomer Blog. I explain why I consider my blog a success, and highlight my most successful blog posting. Then I step back and look at blogs from a larger viewpoint to explain where we are now with blogging in 2007. I discuss why blogs have become popular, and how blogs might look from 2008 to 2018. The appendix features three screen print illustrations from my blog. A computer disc of the Baby Boomer Blog entries is included with this process paper.
Thanks to my family and friends. Mike, Shana, and Marc, and my sister Meira, who is a constant inspiration. Special thanks to my friends Mary Alice, who first handed me a U. of Minnesota catalog, and Joe, a classmate who is now a blogger. Also thanks to my friends Marisa and Heidi, and the members of Poor Posture, Fixed Gears, and the Zombie House.
Thanks very much to my Advisors and Professors at the University of Minnesota: Jack K. Johnson, Arthur Harkins, and two favorite professors, Jerry Alan and Jeremy Iggers, who first encouraged my research on blogging. Also, thanks to the Master of Liberal Studies Department.
Next I'd like to thank the theorists and bloggers who most influenced my work. Thanks to; professor and co-advisor Arthur Harkins, authors Brenda Fiala, William Strauss and Neil Howe, and Generational Dynamics blogger John Xenakis. Special thanks to the Pew Internet in AmericanLife Project for their ongoing research in this subject. Thanks to the bloggers and web creators I call my "Virtual Professors", whose words and thoughts have influenced me. Thanks to Andrew Sullivan, Meryl Yourish, Oliver Willis, Pamela Geller, Ray Kurzweil, Nova Spivak, dana boyd, Douglas Rushkoff, and Jay Michaelson. Also thanks to University of Minnesota blogger John Moravek. Finally I would like to thank some special MySpace friends. Thanks to Janet Waters Levite for being amazing, Manny Mann for being a blog-a-holic, Alvis Briggs, my futurist friend, and Diablo Cody, for being a fearless, female, blogger.
Xenakis is wholly devoted to his blog, I predict that in 2008, he will start to receive national recognition. You will be hearing more about Generational Dynamics
The co-author, with Neil Howe, of foundational books on generational theory, passed away on Tuesday of cancer at age 60.
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Strauss and Howe coauthored several best-selling books on generations, starting with Generations (1991), a history of America told as a sequence of generational biographies. Vice President Al Gore called it "the most simulating book on American history that I have ever read" and sent a copy to every member of Congress. Newt Gingrich called it "an intellectual tour de force."
Their most important work, in my opinion, is The Fourth Turning (1997), which establishes Strauss and Howe as the founding fathers of generational theory. This book presented a new theory of Anglo-American history, from the 1400s through the present, showing that major historical events are driven by generational changes, not by politicians.
For example, we know that today's Boomers, the generation born after WW II, are arrogant and narcissistic, and that those in next generation, Generation-X, are angry and disaffected. What Strauss and Howe discovered, by reading thousands of histories and diaries, is that generations that follow major wars (crisis wars, or "fourth turning" wars) are similar. For example, those in the Reformation Generation that was born after the War of the Roses (1459-87) were also arrogant and narcisstic, and the next generation, the Reprisal Generation, was also angry and disaffected.
By piecing together these bits of evidence, they put together the monumental book Generations. Many readers of this book, especially people who don't understand what's going on in the world, have found this book to be comforting, by each person where he fits in the generational flow.
Going further, The Fourth Turning presents what amounts to a highly readable but rigorous presentation of generational flow for the entire Anglo-American historical timeline.
Previously, Strauss coauthored two books with Lawrence Baskir about the Vietnam War: Chance and Circumstance: The Draft, The War, and the Vietnam Generation (1978), and Reconciliation After Vietnam (1978). Around that time, he served on the staff of the U.S. Senate and President Ford's White House. It was during this time that Strauss first began to notice that people of different social classes in the same generation are much more similar to one another than people from the same social class in different generations. That led to his partnership with Howe, and authorship of Generations.
In addition to his career as a writer and historian, Strauss is a noted playwright, theater director, and performer. He was co-founder and director of the Capitol Steps, a professional satirical troupe that has performed over 7,000 shows, three PBS specials, and fifty radio shows for NPR stations. The Steps have released 26 albums (most recently, I'm So Indicted) and two books (most recently, Sixteen Scandals), and have performed numerous times off-Broadway, often with Strauss in the cast. Strauss has written three musicals (MaKiddo, Free-the-Music.com, and Anasazi) and two plays (Gray Champions and The Big Bump) about various themes in the books he has co-authored with Howe. And in the summer of 1999, Strauss co-founded the Cappies, a high school "Critics and Awards" program.
A native of San Francisco, William A. Strauss was a graduate of Harvard College (1969), Harvard Law School (1973), and the Kennedy School of Government (1973). He's survived by a wife and four grown children.
the Onion A.V. Club in an article titled: "The Worst Band Names of '07" They are on page 2 at the bottom under the category:
"LOOOONG
Fixed Gears are for Jerks and Lesbians A Simpsons references retooled for bike nerds. Parfait."
As you know, the Onion is a satire newspaper that provides free listings to thousands of musicians nation-wide. The article was even linked by blogger Andrew Sullivan.
Graduation was December 14 at Northrop Auditorium. This picture was taken by Marc right before the ceremony started. My Degree is Master of Liberal Studies and I earned an additional Certificate in Innovation Studies in 2006. Thanks to everyone who helped and supported me in this achievement, including my husband, Mike, and my family. Also thanks to my many "real life" and "virtual" friends who gave me ideas, encouragement, and good wishes. My Thesis was accepted on December 12, so I am truly finished. I will post it soon.
Google Maps releases Mpls Street View
Current mood: happy
Category: Life
Happy Hanukah and Happy Birthday to Me.
Graduation is on Friday - and I still need to pick up the "hood" before the ceremony at the bookstore, and then return it. And then celebrate!
Today, Google Maps, released Minneapolis Street View. My house hasn't been mapped yet, but the cities are. Local bloggers seem to think the mapping was done some time this summer right after the bridge collapse. Check it out and look for your house. Maps.google.com
Governor Tim Pawlenty, lights the menorah on the grounds of the Minnesota State Capitol in St. Paul, on December 4, 2007.(Scott Takushi, St. Paul Pioneer Press)
exhausted
okay
happy
accomplished
